With the Stanley Cup playoffs under way, most of the NHL’s fans are focused on the best tournament in sports. Half of the league, though, has headed to the offseason, and the Buffalo Sabres are on the list of teams that have likely begun to design their free agency strategy.
There is a lengthy list of restricted free agents on the Buffalo roster, and many of those players have played important roles for the Sabres in their past few seasons. Topping the list of restricted free agents is certainly Rasmus Ristolainen, but also included on the list are players like Zemgus Girgensons, and Marcus Foligno.
As general manager Tim Murray approaches the RFA signings, it will be important to keep in mind the future financial impact these signings will have; if he overspends on these players, he could tie his hands in the future when his young team’s contracts all expire in the next two to three seasons.
Foligno is one of the more interesting names on the Sabres’ RFA list. He is the only one that would net the Sabres any compensation if he were to sign with another team. According to the 2015 compensation table, a team signing Foligno would sacrifice a third round pick for his rights.
Foligno currently makes $1.875 million in AAV (annual average value). According to comparables as noted on corsica.hockey, Foligno is already being slightly overpaid. The table below shows players with similar analytical stats; beneath that are the salaries of similar players – including one name very familiar to Sabres fans.
If Foligno decides to stay in Buffalo, he will likely demand a reasonable increase in salary. Any offer approaching $4m AAV would put Foligno near the top of Buffalo’s salary list – sixth, in fact, behind stars like Ryan O’Reilly and Evander Kane.
As shown on the table above, Zemgus Girgensons is listed as being statistically similar to Foligno, with only slight
variations in most categories. One notable area of variance is time on ice.
Though it is expressed on corsica’s table as a percentage, NHL.com lists Girgensons’ average TOI as 15:02. Foligno’s is 13:11. Folgino finished the season with a career-high 23 points; Girgensons with 18, which was low for the 22-year-old Latvian.
Foligno was certainly a solid player for the Sabres this season. He led all Sabres forwards this season in plus-minus with a plus-4, though, Foligno is not much affected by the empty-net goal stat that haunts many of Buffalo’s more dependable players. He represents one of the team’s bigger forwards, and has a bit of a nasty streak, but that part of his game has diminished after experiencing some injuries in seasons past.
Girgensons’ value may be more than that of Foligno.
Girgensons is lacking some of Foligno’s size, but he is still a physical presence on the ice. Though he may not levy some of the punishing hits we’ve seen Foligno deliver, Girgensons is equally adept in the corners and along the boards. Though he had an off-season on the scoresheet, has proven that he can score more proficiently than Foligno does, and has proven he can adequately fill a spot on the second line when called upon to do so.
Girgensons is also a few years younger than Foligno. His entry-level contract has just expired, during which he made less than half of Foligno’s salary. A substantial increase in Girgensons’ pay may ultimately cost less than a bump for Foligno, which makes Girgensons a more logical choice for the Sabres to re-sign.
Murray is going to have to make some tough decisions in this offseason and every summer from now until his superstar rookies reach the end of their entry level deals. With a careful eye on salaries, Murray will have to work very hard to minimize AAV and keep room to sign not only players like Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart, but also veteran free agent talent that will help this young team move on to the next level.
Allowing Foligno to move on will not only save Buffalo some money, but would also net the Sabres a compensatory draft pick to add to their war chest, which could be fodder for trades in the future. It will be unfortunate for the team to lose a player with such deep roots in Buffalo, but letting Foligno go makes the most sense for the team going forward.
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